Right now there are apparently two dates that Apple will use to launch stuff.
September 12th, coinciding with the start of Apple Expo Paris, yet not held at the exhibition centre, and september 25th, which is the start of Photokina.
Apple needs to launch its products before the holiday season and this seems about right.
So here are my usual guesses as to what is in store:
September 12th:
First off, why not at Apple Expo? Simply because this one has to be about the iPod. The iPod is bigger than Apple Expo. Much bigger. They don't need to be in Paris to launch it, because people that want to go there will go there anyway. And the Apple specific press will write about it regardless. It's the mainstream press Apple is after and they are not in Paris.
Apple will have to do something with its iPod line. The entire line hasn't been updated for a year, while Apple reportedly spent more money on R&D. Something has to come out of that. Also, looking at previous releasedates you can see that Apple takes about a year to launch the next generation.
Lastly, I would expect the iPod market to be approaching saturation. That means that Apple will have to start focussing on the replacement market. In other words, getting people to buy their second iPod. Of course they won't do that unless there is something to be gained...
So what's in store? I expect a new model to replace the 60Gb iPod with. Probably the 30Gb version will continue to sell for a while, as there is nothing particularly wrong with it. A bigger screen seems likely. Movies are beginning to get some traction and since whatever is launched will have to sell for a year you can be sure that online movies - however dubious their commercial success - will play a large part here. Touch-screen? Possible, but more likely the small nano-sized scrollwheel will be used to save space.
I'm still not sure about an iTunes movie store. Sure Apple might pull a rabbit out of a hat, but remember that the original iTunes store launched way after the rest of the market. Apple waited until it could get a deal with the labels that they thought would work. In that sense I don't see Apple rushing out the gate with something unless they are absolutely confident that it will work. They have a reputation to lose, contrary to most of the other players in the online movie market today.
What about Mac hardware? Some rumours talk of a 23" iMac. While I would love to see one, I'm not sure it makes sense. People that are willing to pay for a 23" will need more expandability than the current iMac designs can offer. Current prices are $1299 for the 17" and $1699 for the 20". Looking at the Cinema displays today, you can see there is a $300 gap between the 20" and 23", so lets assume that it'll be similar for the iMac. $1999. Not a nice price-point for a computer that cannot be expanded at all.
The gap in Apple's line up isn't a larger all-in-one computer, it is the gap between the Mac Mini and the Mac Pro...feel it coming? The brand-new "Mac". Plain and simple. The Mac Pro is a powerful beast, which is too big for most of us. The mini too small. The iMac, while very nice, isn't expandable.
Why not have a desktop for the rest of us?
Core 2 Duo, 3 expansion bays for the Mac Pro's 4. Less PCI-Express slots (perhaps just one normal one and a double-wide one for graphics), one optical drive slot, 4 memory slots instead of 8.
And a smaller enclosure.
I'd buy one.
September 25th:
Don't expect anything new. This will be about Aperture. Apple will want to show that it is serious about the photography market. Photographers can be quite conservative when it comes to software choices, as they are afraid to get burnt. Apple needs to show it is in for the long haul. How?
Expect a sneak peak of Aperture "2.0". Not sure they'll call it that, but in any case, the next pay-for upgrade. It'll have a bunch of new tools, including ways for adjusting parts of a photograph independent from the rest (i.e. easy selections). Vignette correction (because it is relatively easy to do), keystone correction, print-sharpening, better noise-reduction, and off-line media support are all likely candidates.
This version will likely be a good 3-4 months away, so in the mean-time expect a version 1.2 with many bug fixes and performance enhancements to tide us over. This will likely be available there and then or at least very soon after the show. This way Apple makes it their commitment clear: Improve the current version and give a clear roadmap for the future.
I don't expect an Aperture Light, as it would be hard to define a sub-set of Aperture features that would lead to a useful application in its own right, that can compete with the competitions offerings.
So there you have it. Lets see how many I'll get this time around.
Update
AppleInsider now reports that it is likely there will be a new type of Airport Express that will stream video. I blogged about that before and I still think it makes sense. So I'm adding this type of device to my predictions.
This means they will launch a full movie ecosystem: buy + download (iTunes Movie store), play on to go (New iPod) and play at home (new Airport Express). My guess is this might mean any new Mac hardware will take a back seat, if it is announced at all. Perhaps they will bump the new iMac or "Mac" to the 25th, although it would be a first for Apple to announce hardware at an industry specific show...
If they do announce new Macs on the 12th, it would be the most impressive list of products Apple has launched on a single day for....well....maybe ever.
One last thought occurs to me. It's somewhat of a no-brainer but I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere before: If Apple does launch a movie-store, I expect their current Quicktime trailer download site to be rolled up into it. See trailer, get "buy now" or "reserve now" or whatever button. Also remember that right now iTunes doesn't allow you to download these trailers and put them on your iPod in one go.
How about a "new trailer videos" RSS feed? Also, think about Front Row. That has trailers built in too. Front Row will likely get the ability to order videos too...right from your couch. Once the core infrastructure is in place, these kind of features aren't all that hard to add, one would think.
