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WWDC 09: The usual predictions

I do these every year and seem to get a slightly-better-than-50-50 success ratio. Since nobody reads this anyway, this is mainly for my own amusement.

iPhone

1. iPhone OS 3.0 demo. Shoe in. 
2. iPhone OS 3.0 will have some surprises still. I'd bet on a new, previously unseen, Apple app.
3. New iPhone. Better camera, more storage, compass, video recording and clipping. At the risk of sounding like Bill Gates ("640K ought to be good enough...") I'd wager no faster processor. OS 3.0 will be more optimized and some of the peripheral hardware (video & audio chips) will be more efficient, which leads to a better overall experience. I still feel a much faster processor would put developers in a bind, with a large installed base using slower phones. Then again, I might well be wrong here.  
4. Expect some big announcements/highlights of new companies joining the developer program. Enterprise stuff, like IBM, Oracle, etc. Note that most games produces are already there. iD software might show up and demo a new unannounced game: hardly the first time. 

Mac

1. No new hardware. Certainly not a netbook or tablet. If they did, it makes more sense to do that at a special event.
2. Snow Leopard demo. Expect some actual surprises here. I'm betting on a new UI. Also, Apple quite likely wants everybody to upgrade, so I wouldn't be surprised if this release would be priced in a friendly way.  
3. Social network integration. Several apps in Snow Leopard and iLife have some form of this. Expecting at least some mention of this, if not some announcement of further integration
4. App-store for Mac apps. Haven't seen much mention of this, but I'd say it would be silly not to extend the app-store to include all Mac software. It works and devs are willing to give Apple part of their cash for the privilege.   

MobileMe

1. This was last year's big thing. Expecting some announcement in this area, perhaps related to the social network stuff. Remember that all Apple really lacks to turn MobileMe into a social network is friend lists...

Well, let's see how I did on monday.

My movie setup

Oliver writes about his Torrent Setup for TV Series and asks how others do this. 

The answer (from my side) is: far more primitively. 

I do not have an always-on machine, sitting and downloading stuff. Instead things are downloaded manually to my MacPro. Oliver's use of Dropbox is a master-stroke and one I might just try and copy. It would be the first really practical use for this (pretty neat) service. 

On the MacPro I'm running Connect360, which published all movies to XBox, which is directly connected (by ethernet cable, since the XBox doesn't do wireless-N) to an Airport Extreme basestation. The MacPro connects wirelessly to another Airport Extreme, which is bridged to the first one. The convenience of sitting on the couch with a wireless controller and being able to turn on XBox with it remotely, browse for a movie and play it on my flat screen TV is amazing. 

I am running into issues though. Firstly the XBox is noisy as hell. That's fine when watching a Prison Break marathon, but not so much when watching a latest drama or near-silent movie like No Country for Old Men. Furthermore, having a full-HD TV means you really want to watch HD content, yet this is harder than it seems. Most HD content is encoded using MKV, which the XBox doesn't play. Converting that into h.264 is not straightforward and very time-consuming. You need to demux audio and video, encode each one and then recombine them. If the file is larger than 4Gb is needs to be split first, etc. 

Even after jumping through all these hoops the result is often a h.264 that stutters like crazy (not a function of the network). If Apple upgrades the hardware of the mini, I might buy one. Right now mini's aren't powerful enough to play MKV directly either. 

The solution I'm eying at the moment is Popcorn Hour. This includes torrent downloading and playing of MKVs. It should also be a lot more quiet than the XBox. Now if it could only be made to watch a Dropbox folder...

Quick MacWorld Scorechart

iLife 09: Check

iWork 09: Check. iWork with more tie-ins to MobileMe: Check. Its called iWork.com here, but requires a MobileMe account.

No web-based iWork: Check.

Real-time collaboration in iWork: Nope. Too bad.

New iMac: Nope.Home Media Server product: Nope.

Snow Leopard demo: Nope. That was really a big surprise...Also the fact that Apple is releasing a new boxed set of Leopard, iLife and iWork. Feels like Snow Leopard might be some way off.

Sort of 50-50 then...oh and then I missed the 17" MBP too.

More iWorks

Is iWork turning into a web application? Nah...I stand by my previous posts on the subject. Way bigger tie-ins with MobileMe and collaborative editing.

If Apple does offer some kind of online iWorks it will be as part of the whole package, which will still headline desktop applications.

Now iWorks for iPhone in some kind of way...THAT would be news.

Some more predictions for 2009

For MacWorld:

1. iWorks 2009. Expect way more tie-ins with MobileMe. Real-time collaborative editing anyone? It would be about time!
2. A Snow Leopard demo. Obviously. Expect a few (minor) surprises here. Apple needs something to be able to sell this. Unless they plan on giving it away...
3. iLife 2009. iPhoto is due for a major update as is iDVD.  

Elsewhere in 2009:

1. Yahoo's Open strategy will slowly begin to pay off. 
2. Twitter will continue to grow, but monetization will remain elusive.  
3. For-pay services will see a comeback.

Finally:

Apple will add social elements to MobileMe, to create a true "Exchange for the rest of us". Coordinate calendars, share media, get friend-recommendations in iTunes, etc. On the back of a fully integrated, mobile experience with push-capability in the iPhone, still one will be big. Apple is in the enviable position that it already has the device, the users, the network and pretty much all the technology in place. Now it just needs the right social networking concept. 

Expect it to be low-key at first. A friend-list stored on MobileMe, maintained through your addressbook, used in iChat, hooked up to your iPhone. Follow this by sharing of all things stored on MobileMe (calendar, bookmarks, photos, etc.) and a Twitter-like service pushing messages and notifications to your iPhone. The social network won't be in a single place, like Facebook, but instead will permeate your apps and services, web-based and desktop alike.

Rumour time again

Apple's last MacWorld is coming up. Instead of a Steve-note it'll be a Phil-note. Good. The poor man deserves more exposure, irrespective of Steve's health or whether or not Steve can be bothered to attend the show.

Anyway, there are a couple of rumours out there to comment on:

Firstly, Apple is supposedly developing a Home Media Server. This is nothing new. Apple was talking about being the digital hub years ago. However, no specific product for this ever appeared. The Mac itself became the hub and it wasn't until the release of Time Capsule that Apple tried a "headless" device in this area.

I already blogged about a device like the one now being discussed about a year go. If it gets released it will use a combination of a Time Capsule-like device and Back To My Mac-style firewall circumvention to work. Note that Back To My Mac requires a MobileMe account, so expect further tie-ins there...

Secondly, the 'Large Screen iPod Touch Device'. This makes a lot of sense. All Apple's patents make it clear that both the software and the hardware of a device like the iPhone is meant to be modular. The iPod Touch is the trivial example of this. Remove the 3G radio and bingo, new device! That may seem obvious, but it isn't necessarily. Even small hardware changes can lead to large differences in software on many other platforms. Apple however frequently invests in fundamental technologies that can help it across the board.

One simple example (which I'm surprised to say isn't being widely discussed!) is exactly that of a larger screen iPod device. Suppose for a second it would be twice the size in each direction. That would make it about the size of half a piece of A4 or legal paper, with 4 times the resolution of an iPhone. Great!

Ship it with iWorks Touch, a mobile version of iWorks. Neat! Now what about other software...well we've got an app-store full of it. Except those apps are written for a much smaller screen. No problem. Remember the resolution independent user-interface? People have been wondering where that went. It is there in the development tools, but it isn't enabled for the end-user. The iPhone/Touch version of Leopard includes this too. This means that any correctly written iPhone app will run in 4x the resolution on this new, bigger device. And not by simply doubling all the pixels, resulting in ugly pixels everywhere. No, correctly scaled and beautifully drawn. No problem. And if the developer wanted to specifically support the device he could keep certain parts of the interface smaller (compared to the size of  the screen) and gain more screenspace to display or manipulate data in.

Bottom line, a device like that (if it exists), if shipped with a couple of productivity apps from Apple and all of the current app-store apps would give it all the boost it would need.

My list of Apple apps that should ship with a device like this:

1. iWorks: Pages, Numbers, Keynote. Cut down of course. But with ability to read and write the files produced by their desktop counterparts. And Word/Excel/Powerpoint of course. 
2. Remote desktop: Together with Back To My Mac this would be great.  
3. File-sharing support built in. Built on top of this Home Media Server concept. Should keep the amount of built-in storage needed to a minimum. 64Gb max.  

Come MacWorld we might see the Home Media Server. I doubt we'll see the new tablet.

Expected updated iMacs too. Don't expect them to change much externally though.

 

iPod event: the results

OK, this was an easy one. Pretty much all the stuff show was expected. Still here's the score:

1. Upgraded Nano's ala Rose: Correct.
2. 8Gb/16Gb Nano's: Correct.
3. 2nd gen iPod Touch:
   • Device itself: Correct 
   • Same storage: Correct
   • Better battery life: Correct (probably result of 2.1 software though)
   • Pricedrop of $100 across board: almost correct. 8Gb version only get $75 price-drop. 16Gb and 32Gb get $100 as predicted.  
4. 2nd gen iPod Touch to get GPS or camera: incorrect 
5. iTunes 8: Correct 
6. 2.1 software update: 
   • Update itself: correct 
   • No cut/paste: correct 
   • Turn by turn GPS: incorrect (or at least not mentioned)  
   • Bugfixes and performance increases main thing: correct 
7. Pricedrops for iPod classic: incorrect (also missing downsizing lineup to only single size...does mean it is being phased out in my opinion though) 
8. Facts, figures, demos: possibly correct (haven't seen the quicktime of the event yet) 

Guess my predictions weren't all that bad, but then, as I said: this was an easy one.

 

iPod event: my predictions

Here's my usual list of predictions for the Apple event later today:

1. Nano's get upgraded. The pictures posted by Kevin Rose are correct.
2. Nano's will come in 8Gb and 16Gb instead of 4/8Gb. Price will be same as the previous model. Double the capacity, bigger screen, same price.  
3. iPod Touch 2nd generation will be launched. Same storage capacities, better battery life, looks more like iPhone 3G. Apple will launch a 64Gb version later on (most likely), so it wants to open up $499 price-point for this. My guess is $100 price-drop across the board, making the 8Gb $199, just like the 8Gb iPhone is marketed to have (with the contract of course it costs more, but that's not the immediately visible).
4. iPod Touch 2nd gen, will either include GPS or a camera. Not likely both. Apple will want to leave some clear differentiators with the iPhone. Including both would be a very gutsy move.
5. iTunes 8 is long overdue. Kevin is probably right on the money. 
6. The 2.1 software update will be there. It will support the new features of iTunes 8. I do not expect cut and paste to be in there. Turn by turn GPS or something like it will likely be there. Bugfixes and performance increases are more likely to be the heart of this update.
7. Pricedrops for iPod Classic will be necessary, since there is very little going on in this segment. Apple is in a bit of a quandary with regards to this product. It survives by virtue of its large capacity and good price-point, something that isn't easily done with Flash RAM. Apple could introduce a fatter iPod Touch with a harddisk to replace it though, but that would be a major surprise.
8. Expect some facts and figures on iPhone sales as well as potentially some partners showing upcoming neat software and talk sales-figures. The iPhone software ecosystem is really important for Apple. 

  Overall I don't expect too many big surprises. Famous last words.

Six reasons why Apple rumours are often wrong

It never ceases to amaze me just how often Apple rumours and predictions get it wrong. Sure, trying to guess what is happening in secretive 1 Infinite Loop is tricky, but in many cases it is immediately that the rumour cannot be true. It doesn't seem to matter all that much whether it is an Apple rumour site or an established news outlet. To wit:

1. A Mac tablet, if it ever appears, will not, repeat not, have a DVD drive. Slot loading or otherwise. Apple always tries to get rid of as much functionality as possible, without harming a products' core functionality. More broadly, Apple as tries to limit the number of overall design concepts. A concept introduced once is likely to find its way into as many products as feasible. This makes designing a new product easier, as it will have to conform to these kinds of "current practices". For the user this encourages a kind of unconscious, instant familiarity with new Apple product. In this case, the Macbook Air shows the way: exit DVD drive.
2. No Apple product will ever split itself into multiple, independently useable parts. Fancy design concepts not withstanding, not single Apple product has ever done this. It's fidgety and prone to breakage. Apple always focuses on providing simple tools that do a limited number of things really well and communicate with other products for those functions peripheral to it's raison d'être but not core enough to make it into to core featureset. Example: iTunes on the desktop supporting the iPod and iPhone and Pages using iLife's media browser. This focus on simple devices run counter to the idea of click-clack component systems, which will always be more complicated then near-single-purpose devices.
3. On a similar note, Apple doesn't like moving parts. If it moves it introduces design complexity, a multitude of additional parts to assemble and again the risk of breakage. This is why Apple jumped on slot-loading DVD drives early on for example and why it replacing the wheel on the original iPod with the current version, which doesn't physically rotate. So say goodbye to the idea of clamshell or slider iPhones with - gasp - keyboards. Notebooks with hinged screens that close on top of the keyboard are probably seen by Apple as a necessary evil, just like the "home-button" on the iPhone.
4. Apple doesn't care about market-imposed limits and does and don'ts. Just because flashram is expensive and not available in sizes similar to todays laptop HDs doesn't mean they're not usable in a product. See the Air again. Therefore, trying to imagine next-gen Apple products based on todays constraints is often an exercise in futility.
5. You're not the target audience. This is a harsh truth for many hardcore Apple fans and analysts alike. Apple's amazing blend of high-tech, user-friendliness and flawless execution has won it many fans in the tech sector. If you are reading this, the chances are you are one of them. But as important as these early-adopters and tech-freaks can be to Apple, their core audience is average Joe, the user. A person who uses computers largely because he has to and who buys devices either because they are either cool or understandibly practical. He is happy for any functionality he can actually understand and has little or no need for advanced-"anything". This silent-majority of buyers is what primarily accounts for Apple's revenue, not über-geek blogger X. It is therefore easy to find blog-posts decrying the lack of certain features in Apple products. This however, never seems to stop people buying them anyway and Apple obviously knows this. Many rumours go wrong here, by adding endless potential features to the rumoured device. Strip away half the features or more and you're often a lot closer to the truth. 
6. Just because a concept has been tried in vain in the past (by Apple or others), it doesn't mean Apple won't try it again. Apple is often late to market with their products. iPods weren't close to being the first MP3 player. Just the first really sensible one. iPhone wasn't the first mobile phone or even the first with a big touch-screen or installable software. Just a really good execution of the concept, built when the time was right. As big a buzz as there was around PDAs, they are now all but extinct and subsumed by smartphones. That doesn't stop the iPod Touch from selling, eventhough it can do most of what a regular PDA used to do. Often looking back at failures of the past or even things that weren't practical at the time, gives more insight than merely extrapolating today's successes.

Sure enough, many more reasons can be given. Most of these are really just common sense mixed with a dash of computing history. Still, analysts and rumour-mongers (the one is often the other, but not always the other way around) would do well to give their predictions a once-over based on these and similar rules.

The Device, The Platform, The Service, The World

Looks like Apple has again managed to do what basically nobody expected: Create a 3G iPhone at half the price of the previous one.

But that's not the whole story. Not even close. As Gruber notes: its the platform stupid! Mobile Me is much more than .Mac with a new haircut. The push sychronization on offer (which like will also power the new push notification API announced as part of the SDK, to replace background process support), as well all the actual services, mean a package simply not seen before in the mobile space. At least that I'm aware of.

What Apple did before, by tying in iPod to the iTunes music store and later the video store, it has now done for everything else on your mobile device. All that's left is for Apple's operator partners to start offering the first year of Mobile Me for free. All of it can then work "out of the box": Mobile email, calendars, sharing etc.

Also note that with a service like, you'll be able to share all of these things with other users of the service. This will likely not be in place for launch, but will no doubt be on the roadmap for it.

By tying this together with a kickass, always-on device (iPhone, iPod Touch) you get close to an all-in-one solution, usable by most users. No desktop required.

Add a small degree of partner branding, and mobile operators could start saving big on no longer having to provide their own half-assed solutions in this space. Apple has become a lot more enterprise focused as of late (look at the Mobile Me logo...enterprise friendly blue...exchange support in Snow Leopard, enterprise apps and features in OS X iPhone 2.0, etc.), so I wouldn't put it past them.

The flip side of this all-round compelling package, of course, is lock-in at a scale Apple's never managed before.